Demography India Vol. 27, Issue 2, (1998)

From the Chief Editor’s Desk

The Billion and the Millennium

THERE are two problems currently faced by Indian demographers both in India and abroad. Firstis to select the date on which India's population crosses the billion mark; to celebrate it, observe itor bemoan it as the case may be. Many different dates have been put forward based on sounddemographic considerations but all equally worthy of consideration. The differences seem to arisefrom assumptions on current population size and recent rates of growth. According to theRegistrar General of India, in their latest population projection, the population of the country bymid-1999 is estimated at 986.611 million and by mid-2000, it will be 1002.142 million. Theimplied exponential growth rate places 12th May 2000 as the most likely date on which India willcross the billion mark. The Registrar General's projections done in 1997 are based on 1991 censusand take account of the annual birth and death rates until the year 1995. The Sample RegistrationSystem (SRS) figures for the years 1996 and 1997, which have been subsequently made available(after the projection figures), indicate that the growth rates during 1996 and 1997 were higher at1.85% and 1.83% respectively, than what was implied in Registrar General's projections, whichwas 1.6%. If we take these higher growth rates during the past 3 years and the trends implied for1998 and 1999, they indicate that we will cross the billion mark by 3rd December 1999.

The post-enumeration survey carried out after the 1991 census has revealed that there has beena net under count of 17 per 1000 in the census and if adjustments for the same are made on thecensus figures and we assume that the trends in rates of growth estimated in the SRS until 1997will be applicable in 1998 and 1999 (as in the previous assumption), the population of Indiawould have crossed the billion mark by 17 December 1998. This means we have already crossedthe mark!

Then, we have the United Nations projections on population. The recent figures show that thepopulation of India by mid-1998 was 975.8 million (higher as compared to 970.93 million byRegistrar General's office) but grows at 1.6% per year, lower than the rate implied by the SRS.The United Nations has been consistently placing the population of India at 5 to 6 million higherthan the official projections by the Registrar General but it has also projected lower growth ratesin the future. Under the United Nations assumptions, the population would cross the billion markon 12th January 2000. Thus, we have at least 4 projections of the date by which India crosses thebillion mark ranging from December 1998 to May 2000. The choice of the actual date goesbeyond the realm of scientific decision-making and has to be left to the powers who will view theday as one for celebration or observance or despair. Who knows, but it may even be left to theastrologers to find the pre-destined date!

The second problem is related to the issue as to when the next millennium commences? On 1stJanuary 2000 or on 1st January 2001? Demographically, years are counted in terms of number ofcompleted years, and 2000 years of A.D. will be completed on 1.1.2001 by that reckoning.However, if we assume the completion of 1999 years of Anno Domini is the beginning of the newmillennium, it has to be celebrated on 1.1.2000 as the beginning of the 2000th year.India's population is always considered in terms of reaching the billion mark at the turn of themillennium some time in the year 2000. If the millennium is considered to commence on1.1.2001, we may miss an important event in the beginning year of the millennium!

Dr. K. Srinivasan
Chief Editor, Demography India