Demography India Vol 24, No. 2 (1995)

From the Chief Editor’s Desk

THE XIX Annual Conference of the Indian Association for the Study of Population was organized at Population Research Centre, M. S. University, Baroda during 26 to 28 February, 1996. The focal theme of the Conference was "Policy and Programme Implications of NFHS and 1991 Census Results". It was well attended with over 100 participants and 70 papers presented at the Conference. The Inaugural Session was chaired by Mrs. Padma Ramachandran, Vice-Chancellor of the University and the Key-note Address was delivered by Dr K. C. Zachariah, well known demographer, formerly was with the World Bank and now a Visiting Professor at Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, in Kerala (now called Thiruvananthapuram—a tongue twister which our foreign friends could try to get familiarized with newly Christened names of many Indian cities). Dr Zachariah spoke on the Transitions in the Determinants of Fertility Decline in India. The Second George Simmons Memorial Lecture was delivered by me on the topic "Lessons from Goa, Kerala and Tamil Nadu: The Three Successful Fertility Transition States in India". Both Dr Zachariah's address as well as mine are included in this volume on the recommendations of the Executive Committee.

With the availability of the data sets of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) in the public domain, there has been a spate of analysis of the data by scholars and students. The papers presented at the Baroda Conference, numbering over 25, bear ample testimony to this. Many more papers and monographs are in the pipe-line by scholars working at both the IIPS, Bombay and the East-West Centre, Honolulu. In this regard there has been a good net working of different institutions in India including the Population Research Centres, the International Institute for Population Sciences, Bombay and a few other University departments and the research Institutions in the USA through the East-West Centre at Honolulu. With such a large scale professional and academic interest in the data, it is necessary that a close look be taken at the quality of data compiled in the NFHS. Work in this direction has already begun and a paper comparing the results on age-pattern and levels of fertility computed from NFHS and the Sample Registration System by Mr. Swamy, previously, Deputy Registrar General—Vital Statistics in the Office of the Registrar General, is included in this volume. There appears to be a substantial degree of errors in the timing of the events in the NFHS. Mari Bhat, whose paper is also in this volume, has anlaysed the quality of birth history data from the NFHS and the impact of errors on the timing on fertility levels and trends, especially the well known 'accordion effect', that tends to overestimate the magnitude of the decline.

Quality considerations in the compilation of demographic data do not appear to have received as much attention at the hands of Indian demographers as much as for data analytic procedures and refinement and applications of the various indirect techniques for estimating fertility and mortality that promise to circumvent the data quality problems. All indirect methods carry with them a host of assumptions that do not hold in a situation of rapid fertility transition as is occurring currently in many parts of India. In my opinion NFHS is one of the best organized and carefully conducted sample surveys in the country and for a survey of such large size and complexity the analysis of data and publication of results have been fairly expeditious. But this does not make the findings unequivocal and care should be exercised in the interpretation of results, especially on trends and determinants. In the ultimate analysis availability of good quality registration data on births and deaths, in completeness and accuracy of timing of the events and other related characteristics are indispensable for the analysis of trends and differentials in fertility at the sub-national level. Demographic analysis in India has to go to lower levels of aggregation than the state (at least to district level), if it is to have any significance for policy formulation and programme planning. A sound civil registration system is essential for any detailed small area specific analysis of levels, trends and differentials in fertility and mortality. A good system of registration of births and deaths cannot be replaced by either a Sample Registration System or a series of sample surveys such as the NFHS, that provide estimates only at the state level. The extent to which the vital events in a country are recorded with completeness and accuracy are in themselves indicators of the level of development of the country or the area in the country. Kerala is a good example where over 90 per cent of the vital events get registered. Quality considerations of demographic information compiled through surveys and need for speedy improvements in the Civil Registration System in the country can hardly be overemphasized from the demographic point of view.

K. Srinivasan
Chief Editor, Demography India